Prying Into The Electoral College Map

Ekerete Udoh

The November presidential election could end in a landslide victory for either Obama or McCain. However, it would not be won through the actual votes cast, but by the number of Electoral College votes garnered by either of the candidates. American presidents, unlike other elections in presidential system of government are not elected by the plurality of votes cast, but through Electoral College.

The founding fathers of America in one of their strokes of genius had inserted the Electoral College mechanism in the Constitution as a means to protecting the smaller states from being marginalized and rendered impotent by the large and highly industrialized states on the Eastern seaboard in the socio-political scheme of things in the then fledgling republic. Thus, smaller states such as Wyoming and South Dakota with combined populations of a little over a million, significantly less than the population of Eastern Queens (a New York City borough) is as influential in presidential elections as California with Electoral College votes of 52.

As the candidates barnstormed the nation, persuading the electorate to buy into their vision of a new America, attention has now shifted to who is leading at this time on the Electoral College map. A candidate requires 270 Electoral College votes to become the president of the United States. America has in the past four election cycles been divided into what is called the “Blue States” (Democratic states) and the Red States (Republican states.) The Blue States are mainly the large states along the East and Pacific coastlines with Illinois in the Mid-West. The large swath of land in the Deep South and the Bible-Belt vote solidly Republican. Certain states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are considered Battle Ground states, a euphemism for independence or states that are not ideologically aligned with either of the parties. In the last two presidential elections, Republicans won in Ohio and Florida by a squeaker, while Democrats won in Pennsylvania.

In the current election campaign, it appears that we may be witnessing a major realignment. States that have solidly voted Republican such as Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin are trending Democratic. Most polls in those states show that if elections were held today, Obama would win handily. The traditional Blue States however, appear to have remained solidly Democratic. McCain has not been able to persuade electorate in those states on his vision of change that he has lately been trumpeting. What does the above trend suggest? It means that if Obama could hold onto his Blue states, which John Kerry successfully did in 2004, and pry at least two or more states from the Republican, he would win the November elections with more than the required 270 Electoral College votes to become the president.

The Obama Campaign appears to have taken the above calculations into consideration during the primaries. It went on a massive recruitment of new voters and according to the current New York Times polls voters' 18-44 favour Obama 55 to John McCain's 39. It was this group that the Obama campaign had the most success in registering. The widespread enthusiasm shown by African-Americans in Obama's historic run, has also helped him a great deal in Virginia which in the 90s, elected Douglas Wilder as the first Democratic governor of the former Confederate capital since Reconstruction. The influx of Eastern liberals and moderates to Northern Virginia has negated the gains of the Republicans in that state. On election night, if early results coming from Virginia show an Obama win, then it would be bloodbath for the Republicans.

On the other hand, if John McCain keeps Florida in his column, and win in Pennsylvania, and Ohio, then it would be a catastrophic night for the Democrats. It could go either way. For now, all indications seem to point to an Obama win, a fact underscored by the current New York Times national poll which showed Obama leading McCain nationally 48 to 43. We keep our fingers crossed.